Is the worst really over?

Last Week, I sold part of my Apple shares and its options to buy some other Financial stock options and most of my financial stock options are in negative! I bought at the wrong timing. If you ask me, " is the worst really over?" Answer: "I doubt it."
Crude oil price is trading above $125 and AIG missed earnings and lower its guidance. The above trades are only simulation.

Profit taking from Apple and Call options

I have decided to take some profit from Apple and also the call options to release some buying power to buy other options next week. There are a few options that I am watching: Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Call option, Citigroup (NYSE:C) Call Option, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Call Option, Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) Put Option and Bank Of America (NYSE:BAC) Call Option. Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is also in my watch list as it has very good momentum comparing with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). But what I do not like is RIMM has only a single of line of product - Blackberry while Apple has multiple lines of products - IPhone , IPod, ITunes, Mac and more which make me think that Apple is more attractive.

Profit from Apple on May 2, 2008: 40.77% or $5,240.00


Profits from Options on May 2, 2008: 101.13 % or $41,210.00

Merck (NYSE:MRK) is doing well, it is just the matter of time for it to trade above $40.

The reasons I choose the Call and Put options stated above.
The Deal between Microsoft and Yahoo is Off! So, that is the reason I have placed order to buy Call Options for Microsoft and Put Options for Yahoo. Goldman Sachs is trading above $200, to me it is a buy opportunity as long as it is trading above $200. If the worst is over, I guess some good fundamental financial Stocks might be attractive. So, I am placing order for Citigroup and Bank of America which have been killed since October, 2007.

Disclaimer: The above trades are not in Real money

Profits from Apple and Call options on May 1, 2008

Today the USA market was pretty strong. S&P 500 Index was able to close above the Major support of 1400. Last time 500 Index closed above 1400 was on 10 January. I believe that market will trading above this level for some time and will continue to go higher. I guess "The Worst is Over!" is sticking in the minds of the majority investors.

Apple has broken through the resistance at $175 and 180. Well, it is not unusual as the market was so strong, DOW was up 1.48% and NASDAQ was up 2.81%. Any strong NASDAQ stocks could easier up 3% today, Google was up 3.27%, Research in Motion was up 5.24% and Apple was up 3.48%.

The below is my profit from Apple shares: 40.03% or $5,146.00

Now, I will take half of the profit if it is trading below $175 and let the other half goes.

My profit from options: 92.18 % or $37,565.00
I just bought 2 new call options which the mother share is MERCK (NYSE:MRK). Merck is a Drug company. I bought the call options because Merck was recommended by Jim Cramer. As per Jim Cramer, Merck has better growth than Pfizer(NYSE:PZE), although both companies are Dow Components. I see the Daily chart for Merck, its share price is trading at half of what it was on January. It was getting killed and it sounds like another Apple or Google. The investors were just over react for the last couple of months. It is a steal at this price!


Now the market is getting stronger and I think that it is the buy opportunity for the stocks which have good fundamental but were killed because of the over reactions from investors and may be because of the fear of the Recession.

I have paper Profit of more than $30k from Apple and Apple Call Options!

Apple was up $5 in 2 days and I have paper profit of more than $30k! This is amazing! I guess Apple will stay above $170 for a while. I will not take any chance, if Apple comes down below $170, I will take half of the profit. I might put a sell stop at $169.90 for 50% of my Apple shares.

Profit from Apple Mother shares: 36.18% or $4651.00


Total Profit from Apple Call Options: 156.47% or $29,025.00


Apple is trading comfortably above Support of $170 right now. It will stay at the price level as long as there is no bad news from the company or any so-called analysts downgrade the stock with stupid reasons. In my opinion, it will trading upward all the way to $200 again before the end of this year. Let's see if I am right.

Well again, I really hope that the above trades are in real money.

Profit from Apple Call Options, Look at That!

I have bought Apple Call Options when Apple was almost at the Bottom. At one time, I was losing more than $10k and now I have paper profit of $22k! With this money, I can buy a few IPhones and also may be change my current Dell Laptop to a MacBook Air! I also have bought 100 Apple Mother shares at the $128.54 an Now I have paper profit of $4,119.

I think that Apple could go higher. I will feel comfortable as long as it is trading above $160 and $150. If it is really come down below $160, I think I might take half of the profit and let the other half goes. Now, the resistance is at $170, I hope next week it could break it convincingly.

How I wish that the above trades are real money. :-)

Google Blows past Estimates, Apple above 160 support

For the past few months, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) has been hammered resulting from the rumors of its decreasing click-through rates and its market share might be grabbed back by YAHOO! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and it was further fueled by some so-called analysts to downgrade the stock which continued the burning of the stock. Google has reported its first 1Q earnings of 2008 on last Thursday after market close which blew past estimates and the stock was eventually up 20% on Friday!



Another stock which has been hammered by so-call Analysts was APPLE (NASDAQ:AAPL) for the rumors of less revenue resulting from unlocked IPhone and the saturation of the IPod market. Apple share was comfortably closed above support of 160 on Friday, thanks for the Google Earnings. Apple will release its earnings on next Wednesday (23 April 2008) after market close and I am waiting Apple to prove that those so-called Analysts wrong again.



It is surely an exciting week ahead.

Apple (AAPL) on 7,8 April 2008

On April 7, 2008. Apple (AAPL) was up 2.81 to 155.89 after it was upgraded by Thomas Weisel from "Market Weight" to "Overweight".

The next day which is on April 8, 2008. Apple (AAPL) was downgraded by Morgan Keegan from "Marker Perform" to "Under Perform" and Apple was down 3.05 to 152.84.

This is not the first time Analysts have mixed opinions about Apple. On January 23, 2008. Needham & Co has upgraded Apple from "Buy" to "Strong Buy" but Caris & Company has downgraded Apple from "Buy" to "Above Average". It is really amusing to see such a thing happened. The bottom line is analysts can not be trusted and there might be some hidden agenda for upgrading or downgrading the company (eg: downgrade as the company is holding short position or vice versa)

Good news! Apple (AAPL) broke through 150 on 3 April 2008

Apple was able to break through 150 on 3 April 2008 and It was up 1.47 to 153.08 on 4 April 2008. It was indeed for the loyal Apple Shareholders who held on the pain when there was a sell off on early January 2008.



Next, Apple will have to test the resistance at 160 and 170. I believe that it will stay at this level for a while, before the earning on Apple on 23 April 2008 (unless there is a very positive news or a very negative news on Apple before its earning).

Apple (AAPL) could not close above 150 on 2 April 2008

Apple opened at 149 and down 2.04 (1.36%) from previous close of 149.53 to Today close of 147.49. However, Research in Motion (RIMM - sister stock of Apple) released its earning and it beats earning and has upside guidance. In after Hours trading, RIMM up 5.46 (4.72%) and Apple also up 1.39 (0.94%) to 148.88.

Please look at the After Hours trading for RIMM and AAPL as below:-


There were rumors about the possible release of the new Iphone (3G Iphone) which also mentioned in Fast Money. I will be waiting patiently for the release of the 3G Iphone and get one on my hand in future.

Apple (AAPL) on April 1, 2008

Apple (AAPL) was not left behind on this bullish market also. Apple was trading upward for the whole day and it filled up the Gap between 22 January 08 and 23 January 08. This means that it has broke through the Gap resistance and it is another confirmation that the stock will be moving higher. It is up 6.03 (4.2%) to 149.53 during the trading hours.
In the same time, the after hours trading was bullish also, it was up 0.67 cents to 150.20. So, tomorrow Apple will open above 150 and 150 will act as support level. We will have to see if this support is sustainable or not. If Apple is able to close above 150, this will be another confirmation that Apple is in bullish trend and it will go all the way to test the next resistance at 160.

APPLE (NASDAQ: AAPL) was oversold on 4 January

On 4 January, the jobless rate was announced as 5% and it was the worst in 2 years (Unemployment Up, Stoking Recession Fears , from Yahoo News). Following the news, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) was downgraded by JPMorgan from "Overweight" to "Neutral" (Semiconductors Down on Intel Downgrade, from Yahoo News). These 2 news were enough to kill the USA Market or at least the Technology stocks on last Friday.
NASDAQ has the worst percentage drop since March 2003 (Nasdaq: Worst Percentage Drop Since March 2003; Biggest Point Drop Since September 2001, from the Barrons' Blog)

The following list is the drop of the Technology stocks on Last Friday:-
* Google (GOOG) fell $28.33, or 4.1%, to $657.
* Apple (AAPL) fell $14.88, or 7.6%, to $180.05.
* Research In Motion (RIMM) fell $9.47, or 8.4%, to $103.35.
* Amazon (AMZN) fell $6.42, or 6.7%, to $88.79.
* Microsoft (MSFT) fell 99 cents, or 2.8%, to $34.38.
* Cisco (CSCO) fell 63 cents, or 2.4%, to $26.12.
* Intel (INTC) fell $2, or 8.1%, to $22.67.
* VMware (VMW) fell $3.46, or 4.1%, to $80.49.
* NetSuite (N) fell $2.95, or 8.5%, to $31.69.
* IBM (IBM) fell $3.77, or 3.6%, to $101.13.
* Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) fell $2.78, or 5.6%, to $46.87.
* Dell (DELL) fell $1.62, or 6.8%, to $22.09.
* Advance Micro Devices (AMD) fell 52 cents, or 7.7%, to $6.25.
* Nvidia (NVDA) fell $2.75, or 8.4%, to $30.
* Seagate (STX) fell $1.20, or 4.9%, to $23.31.

I am holding APPLE-C1 in Malaysia Market, so, I am a bit concern on the APPLE share. APPLE was down due to the 2 news above and also speculation on the cut of production of iPhone(which I think it caused the oversold). Let's take a look at the chart for APPLE.


From the chart, APPLE was closed below 55 EMA and also below the Bollinger Band. It shows that it was oversold on Friday. I might be wrong, but I would like to be optimistic and confidence at the position I am holding at the moment.

So, with the drop of APPLE, APPLE-C1 in Malaysia sure will drop on Monday, there might have panic selling on the APPLE-C1 also. I think that it is the opportunity for me to buy more to average down my APPLE-C1 price. You might ask, is it dangerous to buy more since the USA market is volatile? Just take a look at APPLE related news at Yahoo (Apple News).
1. Apple: Goldman Ups Ests, Price Target; Advises Staying Long Heading Into Macworld, Earnings - Goldman Sachs raised earnings estimate and price target on APPLE.
2. Will Ditching DRM Ding Apple?
3. Apple Sinks on iPhone Cutback Talk - Speculation on the reduction in production for iPhones.

More news were positive on APPLE and everyone is talking about owning an iPhone including Malaysia. I also wish that I will have one in future. Plus, I do not really believe on the speculation. We shall know the moment of truth on the coming Apple Macworld 2008.

For your information, Malaysia Market was up for 31.29 points (2.18%) on last Friday and I think it was overbought. Following the drop of Dow Jone for 356.54 points(1.96%), I am expecting a downside on Malaysia Market on Monday with may be -20 points. Too Bad, I can not Short the stocks in Malaysia.