Sunday, January 6, 2008

APPLE (NASDAQ: AAPL) was oversold on 4 January

On 4 January, the jobless rate was announced as 5% and it was the worst in 2 years (Unemployment Up, Stoking Recession Fears , from Yahoo News). Following the news, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) was downgraded by JPMorgan from "Overweight" to "Neutral" (Semiconductors Down on Intel Downgrade, from Yahoo News). These 2 news were enough to kill the USA Market or at least the Technology stocks on last Friday.
NASDAQ has the worst percentage drop since March 2003 (Nasdaq: Worst Percentage Drop Since March 2003; Biggest Point Drop Since September 2001, from the Barrons' Blog)

The following list is the drop of the Technology stocks on Last Friday:-
* Google (GOOG) fell $28.33, or 4.1%, to $657.
* Apple (AAPL) fell $14.88, or 7.6%, to $180.05.
* Research In Motion (RIMM) fell $9.47, or 8.4%, to $103.35.
* Amazon (AMZN) fell $6.42, or 6.7%, to $88.79.
* Microsoft (MSFT) fell 99 cents, or 2.8%, to $34.38.
* Cisco (CSCO) fell 63 cents, or 2.4%, to $26.12.
* Intel (INTC) fell $2, or 8.1%, to $22.67.
* VMware (VMW) fell $3.46, or 4.1%, to $80.49.
* NetSuite (N) fell $2.95, or 8.5%, to $31.69.
* IBM (IBM) fell $3.77, or 3.6%, to $101.13.
* Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) fell $2.78, or 5.6%, to $46.87.
* Dell (DELL) fell $1.62, or 6.8%, to $22.09.
* Advance Micro Devices (AMD) fell 52 cents, or 7.7%, to $6.25.
* Nvidia (NVDA) fell $2.75, or 8.4%, to $30.
* Seagate (STX) fell $1.20, or 4.9%, to $23.31.

I am holding APPLE-C1 in Malaysia Market, so, I am a bit concern on the APPLE share. APPLE was down due to the 2 news above and also speculation on the cut of production of iPhone(which I think it caused the oversold). Let's take a look at the chart for APPLE.

Apple was oversold on 4 January 2008
From the chart, APPLE was closed below 55 EMA and also below the Bollinger Band. It shows that it was oversold on Friday. I might be wrong, but I would like to be optimistic and confidence at the position I am holding at the moment.

So, with the drop of APPLE, APPLE-C1 in Malaysia sure will drop on Monday, there might have panic selling on the APPLE-C1 also. I think that it is the opportunity for me to buy more to average down my APPLE-C1 price. You might ask, is it dangerous to buy more since the USA market is volatile? Just take a look at APPLE related news at Yahoo (Apple News).
1. Apple: Goldman Ups Ests, Price Target; Advises Staying Long Heading Into Macworld, Earnings - Goldman Sachs raised earnings estimate and price target on APPLE.
2. Will Ditching DRM Ding Apple?
3. Apple Sinks on iPhone Cutback Talk - Speculation on the reduction in production for iPhones.

More news were positive on APPLE and everyone is talking about owning an iPhone including Malaysia. I also wish that I will have one in future. Plus, I do not really believe on the speculation. We shall know the moment of truth on the coming Apple Macworld 2008.

For your information, Malaysia Market was up for 31.29 points (2.18%) on last Friday and I think it was overbought. Following the drop of Dow Jone for 356.54 points(1.96%), I am expecting a downside on Malaysia Market on Monday with may be -20 points. Too Bad, I can not Short the stocks in Malaysia.

My trades on 2, 3, 4 January 2008

I have been doing good on 2,3 January but did not do well on 4 January. The followings are some of my trades.

Trades on 2 January:
Earning Trades: EAT, LSI, LTD, MU, STX
Losing Trades: BIG, F, GM

Trades on 3 January:
Earning Trades: AEO, BWS, LIZ, LTD, MAT, PSS
Losing Trades: NSM

Trades on 4 January:
Earning Trades: CC, CHS, MU,
Losing Trades: DAL, EAT, JCI, MAT, NCC, STM

All above trades were in Short position. I just realized that I have been in any Long position for some time. It might due to the last couple of days the sectors that I have been watching closely (eg: Retail, Technology, Airlines) were heading South. Sometime I feel that it is easier to made money through Short position.

The main reason I was killed on 4 January was I shorted stocks which already made their move. I still need to improve at learning to watch if a stock has already made its major. No chartings for the above trades. I will need to reorganize the ways I do with my Online Trading Journey in this blog so that it is easier for me to refer back my good and bad trades. I would like to make it easier for other people to see my trades and learn something from them.

Tuesday, January 1, 2008

Sinopec Call Warrant (SINOPEC-C1)

IssuerOSK Investment Bank Berhad ("OSK")
Underlaying ShareChina Petroleum And Chemical Corporation or SINOPEC(HKSE:0386)
Entitlement Ratio5 Warrants to 1 Share
Listing Date5 July 2007
Expiry Date7 Months (31 January 2008)
Exercise PriceHKD 9.00
Issue PriceRM0.13
SettlementCash Settlement [Cash Settlement Amount = (Settlement Price – Exercise Price) / 5 – Exercise Expenses]